In 2025, it has been 81 years since the Showa Tonankai Earthquake struck Japan in 1944, leaving over 100,000 victims in its wake.
While this devastating event may now be fading from memory, the Nankai Trough Earthquake is still looming — not a matter of “if,” but “when.”
A Culture That “Forgets” Disasters
The Japanese people are known for their remarkable resilience — returning to daily life even after catastrophic events.
But this strength comes with a downside:
“With time, we forget.”
This collective normalization can dull our sense of urgency.
Despite the painful memories of the Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake, the Great East Japan Earthquake, the Kumamoto Earthquake, and of course the Showa Tonankai Earthquake, we tend to let our guard down simply because “everything seems fine right now.”
What Is the Nankai Trough Earthquake?
The Nankai Trough is a subduction zone stretching from Suruga Bay to Hyuga-nada, known to generate magnitude 8+ megathrust earthquakes roughly every 100–150 years.
The next predicted Nankai Trough Megaquake could cause:
- Seismic Intensity 7 in parts of Shizuoka to Miyazaki
- Tsunamis over 10 meters across much of the Pacific coastline
Experts warn that this could paralyze half of Japan.
The Clock Is Ticking
The last major Nankai earthquakes occurred in two phases:
- 1944 – Showa Tonankai Earthquake (eastern segment)
- 1946 – Showa Nankai Earthquake (western segment)
That two-year gap reminds us of an important truth:
Earthquakes can occur in sequence.
Now, over 80 years later, we’re entering the window in which the next major quake is statistically likely to happen.
No Warning Signs Necessary
Japan’s government has implemented a “Nankai Trough Earthquake Emergency Info” system to alert the public when unusual seismic activity is detected.
However, officials also stress:
“It may strike without any precursors.”
In short, a sudden megaquake could happen tomorrow — without warning.
Preparedness Must Be a Lifestyle
We cannot control when disasters strike, but we can control our preparedness.
Here’s what to include in your everyday disaster readiness:
Emergency Supplies
- Water & food (3–7 days’ worth)
- Flashlights & portable chargers
- Portable toilets & hygiene products
- Prescription meds & first aid kits
- Infant/elder care items
Mental & Behavioral Prep
- Family evacuation routes & contact plans
- Know your area’s hazard maps
- Install disaster alert apps
- Mentally simulate emergency response actions
A Medical Perspective on Disaster Vulnerability
As a healthcare worker, I’ve witnessed firsthand how fragile our medical systems become during a disaster.
Hospitals can quickly shift from being places that save lives to ones that require rescue themselves.
That’s why I strongly advocate for this mindset:
“Protect your life and your family’s lives — yourself.”
On Rumors and Misinformation
Some rumors circulate online connecting earthquakes to political events, such as, “quakes only hit areas where the ruling party lost.”
Let’s be clear:
These are baseless and scientifically unfounded.
Disasters affect all people, regardless of politics, region, or belief.
We must respond not with paranoia, but with calm, informed action.
Remember. Don’t Normalize. Be Ready.
Earthquakes shouldn’t be thought of in terms of “if,” but “when.”
・ Check your emergency bag now
・ Talk to your family about a meeting point
・ Open a disaster app for just one minute
That one minute could save your life in the future.
Final Note from the Author
As someone working on the frontlines of healthcare, I wrote this post to remind us that peace is never guaranteed.
Even during quiet, normal days, please take a moment to think through a disaster-prepared mindset.
From those who remember, preparedness will spread.
Let’s never forget, never get used to the peace, and always be ready.
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